Growth contributions from large businesses rebounded significantly
from September 2016
WASHINGTON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Feb. 15, 2017--
Today, the JPMorgan Chase Institute released its Local
Consumer Commerce Index (LCCI) for October 2016, which showed that
five of the 15 U.S. cities analyzed saw positive growth in
year-over-year spending. However, overall, year-over-year consumer
spending growth declined by 0.3 percent in October – making it the
fourth consecutive month of negative growth.
Denver continued to experience the fastest growth of all cities studied,
this time at 7.9 percent year-over-year. Across all 15 cities, growth
contributions from large businesses rebounded significantly from
September 2016, adding 1.2 percentage points to overall growth. However,
this rebound was offset by declines in growth contributions from small
and medium businesses.
This report provides a timely view of how the following cities and
surrounding metro areas are faring economically, both individually and
in aggregate: Atlanta, Chicago, Columbus, Dallas, Denver, Detroit,
Houston, Miami, Los Angeles, New York, Phoenix, Portland (OR), San
Diego, San Francisco, and Seattle. By looking at actual anonymized
financial transactions, LCCI offers an ongoing, dynamic view of the
health and vibrancy of the U.S. consumer and the places where businesses
“Despite a slight contraction, October 2016 brought some positive
developments in local consumer commerce,” said Diana Farrell,
President and CEO of the JPMorgan Chase Institute. “Large businesses
helped drive this change, as did ongoing spending growth from
millennials and low income consumers. We are hopeful that November and
December brought continued increases thanks to local holiday spending.”
The key highlights from the latest Index include:
Smaller cities, such as Seattle, San Diego, Denver, Portland, and
Columbus, continued to grow faster than mid-sized and large cities,
with a 2.1 percent overall average growth rate in October 2016.
The top forty percent of consumers – from an income perspective -
continued to be a drag on growth in October 2016, slightly
overshadowing the positive growth contributed by the bottom sixty
percent in that month.
Small business growth contributions fell sharply in October 2016,
subtracting 0.5 percentage points from growth in that month. This is a
significant decline relative to the 2.3 percentage point contribution
in September. This is only the fourth time in our series that small
businesses have detracted from growth.
Large businesses recovered significantly from the 2 percentage point
subtraction from overall growth in September 2016, contributing 1.2
percentage points to growth in October.
With a contribution of 0.9 percentage points, year-over-year spending
growth on nondurables, such as office supplies and clothing, recovered
in October after the decline experienced in September 2016.
The LCCI offers unique advantages over existing measures of consumer
The LCCI captures actual transactions, instead of self-reported
measures of how consumers think they spend.
The LCCI provides timely data on spending in 15 major metropolitan
areas; such geographic granularity is unavailable in most other
spending measures. These 15 cities mirror the geographic and economic
diversity of larger metropolitan areas in the United States and
account for 32 percent of retail sales nationwide.
The index also presents a more granular view of local consumer
commerce through five important lenses: consumer age, consumer income,
business size, product type, and consumer residence relative to the
location of the business. For each lens, we show how different
segments contributed to year-over-year spending growth.
The LCCI captures economic activity in sectors that previously have
not been well understood by other data sources. These include sectors
such as food trucks, new merchants, and personal services.
Each release of the LCCI will describe the economic picture of local
communities and provide a powerful tool for city development officials,
businesses, investors, and statistical agencies to better understand the
everyday economic health of consumers, businesses, and the places they
About the JPMorgan Chase Institute
The JPMorgan Chase Institute is a global think tank dedicated to
delivering data-rich analyses and expert insights for the public good.
Its aim is to help decision makers – policymakers, businesses, and
nonprofit leaders – appreciate the scale, granularity, diversity, and
interconnectedness of the global economic system and use better facts,
timely data, and thoughtful analysis to make smarter decisions to
advance global prosperity. Drawing on JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s unique
proprietary data, expertise, and market access, the Institute develops
analyses and insights on the inner workings of the global economy,
frames critical problems, and convenes stakeholders and leading
thinkers. For more information visit: jpmorganchaseinstitute.com.
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Source: JPMorgan Chase Institute
JPMorgan Chase Institute
Nicole Kennedy, 215-864-5732